Production cost + ad spend + price point → number of sales you need to break even on a course launch.
Model your launch math before you press record. How many units do you need to break even on ad spend + production? Will email-only get you there?
Yes for a warm engaged list with proper launch sequencing (5-7 emails over 7-10 days). Cold list buys hit 0.3-0.6%. White-hot launches (community-driven, scarcity-priced) hit 2-4%. The 1.2% benchmark assumes you have a genuine relationship with the list.
Industry median for landing page → checkout on $297 courses driven by Meta/Google ads in 2026. Premium pricing ($997+) hits 1-1.5%. Tripwire pricing ($47-97) hits 4-6%. Conversion rate is inversely correlated with price for cold traffic.
Most first-time course launches fail to hit 2x ROAS on cold ads. That's why the model heavily weights email — your warm list is the profit engine. Cold ads are for top-of-funnel awareness and list-building, not direct ROAS in launch week 1.
Lifetime value. A profitable course launch breaks even on launch but profits on year 2-3 through recurring courses, upsells, and high-ticket coaching. If launch is breakeven but you keep 80% of buyers in your ecosystem, you'll 5-10x the launch number over 3 years.
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